Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andruv Stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 1D 4L at Andruv Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–4 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sigma Olomouc and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 49% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 51% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.50 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.985 / defence 0.992 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.259 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.362. Mlada Boleslav have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Sigma Olomouc games / 31 Mlada Boleslav games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 34% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 42%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Mlada Boleslav 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Mlada Boleslav 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Andruv Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 34% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.50 / Mlada Boleslav 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.985 / def 0.992 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.259 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Mlada Boleslav xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Andruv Stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andruv Stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 34% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 5W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.26x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
34%
2.98
24%
4.09
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.21
1.70
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
6%
16.36
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.70 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 7D 13L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 10W 12D 13L from 35 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.20 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 6W 6D 5L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.43 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 7D 13L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.82 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 35%, Mlada Boleslav 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sigma Olomouc) and 59% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 35%; Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 59% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andruv Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.50 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.70 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 34% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 42%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 51%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.49 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.