Plzen 4-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Doosan Aréna — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Zlin have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Plzen, 0.90 for Zlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Plzen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Zlin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Plzen, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Zlin — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Zlin — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus Zlin 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 55% | Zlin 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.01 xG and Zlin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.060 / defence 1.031 | Zlin attack 0.875 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.227. Data: 57 Plzen games / 57 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 22% | Zlin 20%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Zlin 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 22% | Zlin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Plzen 2.01 / Zlin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.060 / def 1.031 | Zlin attack 0.875 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Plzen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Zlin xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Zlin kick off?
Plzen vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Plzen 4 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Plzen vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Zlin part of?
Plzen vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 58% chance of winning, Zlin a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Plzen and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Plzen and Zlin in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.88x) against Plzen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.57
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.12
1.11
Zlin xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
3%
37.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Plzen and 1.11 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.23 PPG on a 42W 12D 8L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 13W 19D 30L from 62 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.50 PPG from 30 outings (24W 3D 3L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 12D 16L from 30 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.21 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 63%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Zlin in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 42W 12D 8L in their last 62 games (2.23 PPG), while Zlin have gone 13W 19D 30L in their last 62 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zlin away?
Plzen's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.50 PPG; Zlin away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Plzen or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Zlin in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zlin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Plzen
0
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Zlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Zlin 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zlin?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, Zlin 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 57% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Plzen's games and 63% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 57% of Zlin's.
Do Plzen and Zlin tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 4-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.01 xG and Zlin 1.11 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Zlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 58% | Draw 22% | Zlin 20%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 55%, Zlin 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.