Plzen 4-0 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno meet at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Zbrojovka Brno's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno away from home this season: 4W 0D 3L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Zbrojovka Brno's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Zbrojovka Brno half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 43% versus Zbrojovka Brno 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Plzen 64% | Zbrojovka Brno 93%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.40 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.153 / defence 0.660 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.144 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.357. Zbrojovka Brno bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Plzen's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Plzen games / 14 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 67% | Draw 20% | Zbrojovka Brno 13%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Zbrojovka Brno 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Zbrojovka Brno 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 67% | Draw 20% | Zbrojovka Brno 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 59% | xG Plzen 2.40 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.153 / def 0.660 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.144 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Plzen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Zbrojovka Brno xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Plzen 4 - 0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 67% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Zbrojovka Brno's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. Flip it around — Zbrojovka Brno's attack (1.14x) against Plzen's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.01
13%
7.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.43
1.02
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
7.52
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
9%
11.06
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
1%
83.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Plzen and 1.02 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 11W 2D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno's form line: 6W 2D 6L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zbrojovka Brno.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L).
On the road, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.79 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno in 71%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 11W 2D 1L in their last 14 games (2.50 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Plzen's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.50 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Plzen or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zbrojovka Brno — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Plzen
1
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, Plzen have won 2, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Plzen 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Plzen, 100% for Zbrojovka Brno — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 100% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Plzen's games and 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Plzen and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Zbrojovka Brno.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zbrojovka Brno 4-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.40 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.02 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zbrojovka Brno landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.15 / defence 0.66 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 67% | Draw 20% | Zbrojovka Brno 13%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Zbrojovka Brno 93%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.