Plzen vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Teplice travel to Doosan Arena to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Doosan Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Teplice are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Teplice, with 5 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 5–5 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Teplice in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | Teplice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.57 xG and Teplice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.008 / defence 1.104 | Teplice attack 0.941 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 35 Plzen games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 41% | Draw 24% | Teplice 34%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Plzen dominate the H2H record, yet Teplice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 41% | Draw 24% | Teplice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Plzen 1.57 / Teplice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.008 / def 1.104 | Teplice attack 0.941 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Plzen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Teplice xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Teplice kick off?
Plzen vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Teplice part of?
Plzen vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plzen and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Plzen 4W | Draws 5 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Plzen and Teplice in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.12
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.41
Teplice xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Plzen and 1.41 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 19W 12D 9L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 13W 13D 14L from 40 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 8D 6L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Teplice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Teplice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Teplice away?
Plzen's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.84 PPG; Teplice away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Plzen or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Teplice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Plzen
5
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 4, Teplice have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Teplice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 53%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Plzen) and 47% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Teplice in 32%; Teplice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Plzen's games and 58% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Plzen's recent games and 47% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Teplice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Teplice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.