Plzen 3-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slovácko have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 43% versus Slovácko 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 47% | Slovácko 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.65 xG and Slovácko 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.231 / defence 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.914 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Plzen games / 30 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 57% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 18%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 30% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 57% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Plzen 1.65 / Slovácko 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.231 / def 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.914 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Plzen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Slovácko xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovácko kick off?
Plzen vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Plzen 3 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Plzen vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovácko part of?
Plzen vs Slovácko is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 57% chance of winning, Slovácko a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Plzen and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.91x) against Plzen's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.01
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.47
0.82
Slovácko xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
28.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Plzen and 0.82 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plzen come into this having played 30 games, going 22W 6D 2L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plzen's home form reads 13W 2D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Slovácko in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 22W 6D 2L in their last 30 games (2.40 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovácko away?
Plzen's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.73 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Slovácko in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 3-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Plzen
3
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 3, Slovácko have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Slovácko 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 47%, Slovácko 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Plzen and 67% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Plzen's games and 67% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Plzen's matches and 67% of Slovácko's.
Do Plzen and Slovácko tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovácko 3-1 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.65 xG and Slovácko 0.82 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.23 / defence 0.82 against Slovácko attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 57% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 18%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 47%, Slovácko 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.97. Form held, and they took the win. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.