Plzen 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome Pardubice to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plzen at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Pardubice away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Plzen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Pardubice, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Plzen 3–2 Pardubice — a Plzen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Plzen and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Plzen trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Pardubice trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 57% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 61% | Pardubice 43%). Note also that Pardubice surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Plzen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.97 xG and Pardubice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.262 / defence 0.786 | Pardubice attack 0.967 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.236. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Plzen's last 39 games and Pardubice's last 39.
Result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.65 | Draw 4.40 | Pardubice 6.01. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plzen 50% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Plzen 1.97 / Pardubice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.262 / def 0.786 | Pardubice attack 0.967 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Plzen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Pardubice kick off?
Plzen vs Pardubice kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Plzen vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Pardubice part of?
Plzen vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 61% chance of winning, Pardubice a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.26) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 39 games and Pardubice's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.40
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.91
0.94
Pardubice xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
2%
43.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Plzen and 0.94 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 26W 10D 8L from 44 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 23L across 44 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 15W 4D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 7W 3D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 26W 10D 8L in their last 44 games (2.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Pardubice away?
Plzen's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.23 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Plzen or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pardubice in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Pardubice have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won Plzen 4-0 Pardubice.
Plzen's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Plzen 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Pardubice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 54%, Pardubice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Plzen) and 54% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Pardubice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plzen's recent matches and 46% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Plzen's matches and 54% of Pardubice's.
Do Plzen and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Plzen's recent matches and 73% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.97 xG and Pardubice 0.94 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 0.79 against Pardubice attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 61% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 61%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.