Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.21 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.263. Data: 0 Plzen games / 0 Mlada Boleslav games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Plzen 34% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Mlada Boleslav 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 34% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Plzen 1.21 / Mlada Boleslav 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 34% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.44
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Plzen and 1.24 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Pre-Season
Mlada Boleslav
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.21 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 34% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.