Plzen 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hradec Králové (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Plzen. A 1.20 PPG lead over Hradec Králové (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plzen lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 43% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 51% | Hradec Králové 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.88 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.171 / defence 0.722 | Hradec Králové attack 0.937 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.356. Plzen's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Plzen games / 46 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 59% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Hradec Králové 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Plzen 30% | Hradec Králové 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 59% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Plzen 1.88 / Hradec Králové 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.171 / def 0.722 | Hradec Králové attack 0.937 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Plzen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Plzen vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Plzen 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Plzen vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Hradec Králové part of?
Plzen vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 59% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plzen and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Plzen and Hradec Králové in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.94x) against Plzen's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.10
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.79
0.92
Hradec Králové xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
38.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Plzen and 0.92 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 38W 10D 3L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 17W 16D 18L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.72 PPG from 25 outings (22W 2D 1L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 6W 7D 12L from 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.24 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 38W 10D 3L in their last 51 games (2.43 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Hradec Králové away?
Plzen's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.72 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plzen or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
3
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 40%, Hradec Králové 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Plzen) and 52% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Plzen's recent matches and 52% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Plzen's matches and 52% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Plzen and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Plzen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Plzen 1-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.88 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.17 / defence 0.72 against Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 59% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 51%, Hradec Králové 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.