Plzen 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG clear of Plzen in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plzen lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 57% versus Hradec Králové 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 63% | Hradec Králové 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.056 / defence 0.987 | Hradec Králové attack 0.916 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.125. Data: 31 Plzen games / 31 Hradec Králové games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plzen 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 23%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 4.35. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 80% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Plzen 1.65 / Hradec Králové 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.056 / def 0.987 | Hradec Králové attack 0.916 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Plzen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Plzen vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Plzen 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Plzen vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Hradec Králové part of?
Plzen vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 52% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plzen and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Plzen and Hradec Králové in?
Plzen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.92x) against Plzen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.00
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.02
Hradec Králové xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Plzen and 1.02 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 18W 6D 11L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 13W 6D 16L from 35 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.11 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 13W 6D 16L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Hradec Králové away?
Plzen's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.83 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Plzen or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
3
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 61%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Plzen and 56% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Plzen's games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Plzen's matches and 56% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Plzen and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 2, as Plzen and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 23%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 63%, Hradec Králové 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.