Plzen 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Plzen welcome České Budějovice to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 6W 0D 1L from 7 outings — a 2.57 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 0.86 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 4W 0D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 1.57 PPG advantage (2.57 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 57% versus České Budějovice 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 57% | České Budějovice 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.208 / defence 1.102 | České Budějovice attack 0.841 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.206. Data: 7 Plzen games / 7 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 54% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 23%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | České Budějovice 4.35. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 75% | České Budějovice 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 54% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 1.83 / České Budějovice 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.208 / def 1.102 | České Budějovice attack 0.841 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Plzen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
České Budějovice xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs České Budějovice kick off?
Plzen vs České Budějovice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Plzen 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Plzen vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs České Budějovice part of?
Plzen vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 54% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-0D-1L in 7 | 2.57 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.21x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.37
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.12
České Budějovice xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
26.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Plzen and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Plzen and 1.12 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 7 games, going 6W 0D 1L for 2.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.57 PPG overall — Plzen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 6W 0D 1L in their last 7 games (2.57 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or České Budějovice away?
Plzen's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 3.00 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and České Budějovice runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Plzen
0
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 8, České Budějovice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 67%, České Budějovice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Plzen) and 33% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; České Budějovice in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Plzen's recent matches and 33% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Plzen's recent games and 33% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 1.12 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against České Budějovice attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 54% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 23%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, České Budějovice 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.