Plzen 2-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 43% versus Baník Ostrava 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 46% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.39 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.242 / defence 0.790 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.011 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.126. Plzen's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Plzen games / 28 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 24%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Baník Ostrava 4.17. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 30% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Plzen 1.39 / Baník Ostrava 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.242 / def 0.790 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.011 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Baník Ostrava xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 2 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 48% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.01x) against Plzen's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.56
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.29
0.90
Baník Ostrava xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Plzen and 0.90 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 20W 6D 2L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 13W 9D 6L from 28 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.71 PPG from 14 outings (12W 2D 0L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 4D 3L from 14 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.86 scored and 1.32 conceded. Baník Ostrava's attacking output running into Plzen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 68%.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 20W 6D 2L in their last 28 games (2.36 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 9D 6L in their last 28 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.71 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 43%, Baník Ostrava 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Plzen) and 57% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Plzen's recent matches and 57% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Plzen's matches and 57% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.39 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.90 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.24 / defence 0.79 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 24%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 46%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.