Plzen 2-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Plzen take on Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Arena to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Doosan Arena, Plzen have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plzen lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 55% versus Baník Ostrava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 51% | Baník Ostrava 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.12 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.134 / defence 1.063 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.819 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.162. Data: 42 Plzen games / 42 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 34% | Draw 38% | Baník Ostrava 28%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Baník Ostrava 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Plzen 70% | Baník Ostrava 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 34% | Draw 38% | Baník Ostrava 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Plzen 1.12 / Baník Ostrava 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.134 / def 1.063 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.819 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Baník Ostrava xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 2 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 34% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Record (8 meetings): Plzen 4W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.82x) against Plzen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
38%
2.66
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Baník Ostrava xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Plzen and 1.01 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 28W 9D 10L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 24W 9D 14L from 47 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Plzen against 1.72 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (14W 5D 4L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.40 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 28W 9D 10L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 9D 14L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.04 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 61%, Baník Ostrava 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 44% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 30%; Baník Ostrava in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Plzen's recent matches and 48% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 44% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.12 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 34% | Draw 38% | Baník Ostrava 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 51%, Baník Ostrava 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.98 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.