Plzen vs Artis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Artis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plzen and Artis meet at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plzen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Doosan Arena this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Arena than their overall form suggests.
Artis (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Plzen's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Plzen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Artis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plzen, 0 for Artis and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Artis half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 64% versus Artis 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Plzen 73% | Artis 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.62 xG and Artis 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.015 / defence 1.312 | Artis attack 0.823 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Data: 38 Plzen games / 9 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 27% | Artis 30%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Artis 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Artis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 27% | Artis 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Plzen 1.62 / Artis 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.015 / def 1.312 | Artis attack 0.823 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Artis xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Artis kick off?
Plzen vs Artis is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Artis part of?
Plzen vs Artis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 43% chance of winning, Artis a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plzen and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Artis?
Record (1 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | Artis 0W.
What form are Plzen and Artis in?
Plzen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Artis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.01x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.82x) against Plzen's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 38/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.70
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.33
Artis xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Plzen and 1.33 for Artis, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 3W 4D 4L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Artis's form line: 1W 2D 8L from 11 games, 0.45 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Artis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Artis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.73 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Artis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Artis in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Artis away?
Plzen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.00 PPG; Artis away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Plzen
0
Draws
0
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Artis?
From 1 meetings on record, Plzen have won 1, Artis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Artis 0-3 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Artis?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Plzen, 60% for Artis — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Plzen and 60% for Artis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Artis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Artis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Plzen's games and 60% of Artis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Plzen's matches and 60% of Artis's.
Do Plzen and Artis tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Artis in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.