Pardubice 3-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Zlin travel to Letni Stadion to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at Letni Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Pardubice have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 69% and Zlin 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 55% | Zlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.56 xG and Zlin 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.899 / defence 1.083 | Zlin attack 1.064 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.235. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Pardubice games / 40 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 26% | Zlin 34%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 80% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Letni Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 26% | Zlin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Pardubice 1.56 / Zlin 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.899 / def 1.083 | Zlin attack 1.064 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Zlin xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Letni Stadion.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 3 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Letni Stadion.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 40% chance of winning, Zlin a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (9 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 3 | Zlin 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.90x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.89
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.98
1.42
Zlin xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.42 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 10D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.83 PPG from 42 outings (9W 8D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.58 points per game from 19 outings (2W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.10 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 8D 25L in their last 42 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.26 PPG; Zlin away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2026, when Pardubice won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Zlin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pardubice at 74%, Zlin at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pardubice) and 47% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pardubice's games and 58% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pardubice's recent games and 47% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Zlin in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pardubice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Zlin 3-0 at Letni Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.56 xG and Zlin 1.42 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Zlin attack 1.06 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 40% | Draw 26% | Zlin 34%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 55%, Zlin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.