Pardubice 2-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Pardubice have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Teplice away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 64% versus Teplice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 71% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.02 xG and Teplice 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.815 / defence 1.447 | Teplice attack 0.895 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.126. Data: 28 Pardubice games / 28 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 27% | Teplice 47%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.13. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Teplice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 27% | Teplice 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.02 / Teplice 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.815 / def 1.447 | Teplice attack 0.895 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Teplice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Teplice xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Pardubice 2 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 26% chance of winning, Teplice a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.90x) against Pardubice's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
26%
3.82
27%
3.69
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.48
1.46
Teplice xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.46 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 4W 9D 15L from 28 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 18L across 28 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Pardubice against 0.86 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 1W 8D 5L from 14 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 3W 2D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.96 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 4W 9D 15L in their last 28 games (0.75 PPG), while Teplice have gone 7W 3D 18L in their last 28 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Pardubice's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.79 PPG; Teplice away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Teplice 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pardubice) and 57% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 43% of games; Teplice in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pardubice's recent matches and 43% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Pardubice's matches and 57% of Teplice's.
Do Pardubice and Teplice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Teplice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Teplice 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.02 xG and Teplice 1.46 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.45 against Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 26% | Draw 27% | Teplice 47%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 71%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.75 PPG, Teplice 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.