Pardubice 0-5 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 1W 4D 2L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 4W 2D 1L from 7 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.29 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 69% and Slavia Praha 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 62% | Slavia Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.851 / defence 1.248 | Slavia Praha attack 1.183 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.250. Data: 13 Pardubice games / 13 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 53%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Slavia Praha 1.89. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 57% | Slavia Praha 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Pardubice 1.20 / Slavia Praha 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.851 / def 1.248 | Slavia Praha attack 1.183 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Slavia Praha xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Pardubice 0 - 5 Slavia Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 25% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pardubice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.85) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.18x) against Pardubice's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
25%
4.05
23%
4.39
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.04
1.85
Slavia Praha xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
4%
25.67
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.85 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.84 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 1W 4D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.46 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 10W 2D 1L in their last 13 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Pardubice
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 57%, Slavia Praha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pardubice) and 57% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pardubice's games and 57% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Pardubice's matches and 57% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Pardubice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 0-5 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.85 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.85 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Slavia Praha attack 1.18 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 53%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 62%, Slavia Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.