Pardubice 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Hradec Králové travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice at CFIG Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pardubice 1.10 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 1, Hradec Králové 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 55% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Hradec Králové 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.12 xG and Hradec Králové 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.810 / defence 1.021 | Hradec Králové attack 1.038 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.269. Data: 57 Pardubice games / 57 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pardubice 1.12 / Hradec Králové 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.810 / def 1.021 | Hradec Králové attack 1.038 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Pardubice 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 30% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
30%
3.28
29%
3.51
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.47
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.34 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 15W 14D 33L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 0.95 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (7W 11D 12L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 9W 8D 13L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 14D 33L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.07 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 47%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pardubice) and 57% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 40% of games; Hradec Králové in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pardubice's recent matches and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pardubice's recent games and 57% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.12 xG and Hradec Králové 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 56%, Hradec Králové 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.95 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.