Pardubice 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 3, Hradec Králové 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 45% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Hradec Králové 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.37 xG and Hradec Králové 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.808 / defence 1.300 | Hradec Králové attack 1.252 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.252. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hradec Králové have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Pardubice games / 47 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 52%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Hradec Králové 1.92. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Hradec Králové 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Pardubice 1.37 / Hradec Králové 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.808 / def 1.300 | Hradec Králové attack 1.252 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Hradec Králové xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Pardubice 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 25% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Record (8 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
25%
4.02
23%
4.35
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.41
2.04
Hradec Králové xG
4.02
25%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
13%
7.67
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
3%
30.83
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pardubice and 2.04 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 9W 13D 29L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 21W 12D 18L from 51 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 9W 5D 12L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.35 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 9W 13D 29L in their last 51 games (0.78 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 12D 18L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.19 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Hradec Králové 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pardubice) and 58% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 35% of games; Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pardubice's recent matches and 46% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pardubice's recent games and 58% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.37 xG and Hradec Králové 2.04 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.30 against Hradec Králové attack 1.25 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 23% | Hradec Králové 52%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Hradec Králové 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.