Pardubice 3-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pardubice's home record at CFIG Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
České Budějovice (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. České Budějovice are 0.50 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pardubice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, České Budějovice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Pardubice 1W, České Budějovice 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 49% versus České Budějovice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 40% | České Budějovice 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.62 xG and České Budějovice 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.772 / defence 1.041 | České Budějovice attack 0.910 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 60 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 45% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 28%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | České Budějovice 3.57. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form České Budějovice (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 60% | České Budějovice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 45% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Pardubice 1.62 / České Budějovice 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.772 / def 1.041 | České Budějovice attack 0.910 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.22
České Budějovice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Pardubice 3 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Pardubice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs České Budějovice part of?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 45% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pardubice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Record (6 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 2 | České Budějovice 3W.
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.91x) against Pardubice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.72
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.84
1.22
České Budějovice xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.22 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 12D 32L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.03 PPG from 63 outings (18W 11D 34L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Pardubice against 1.03 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 9W 8D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.61 points per game from 31 outings (4W 7D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.17 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 19W 12D 32L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 18W 11D 34L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or České Budějovice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.13 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, České Budějovice 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Pardubice) and 64% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 36% of games; České Budějovice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Pardubice's recent matches and 61% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Pardubice's recent games and 64% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out České Budějovice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat České Budějovice 3-2 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.62 xG and České Budějovice 1.22 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against České Budějovice attack 0.91 / defence 1.37, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 45% | Draw 27% | České Budějovice 28%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, České Budějovice 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.10 PPG, České Budějovice 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.