Pardubice 0-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pardubice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Pardubice welcome Dukla Praha to CFIG Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pardubice — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's home record at CFIG Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 0.50 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pardubice, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Dukla Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 36% versus Dukla Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Dukla Praha 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.05 xG and Dukla Praha 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.678 / defence 1.056 | Dukla Praha attack 0.625 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.141. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Pardubice games / 25 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 24%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Dukla Praha 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Dukla Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Pardubice 1.05 / Dukla Praha 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.678 / def 1.056 | Dukla Praha attack 0.625 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Dukla Praha xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 40% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Pardubice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Dukla Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.68) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
40%
2.52
37%
2.72
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.80
0.75
Dukla Praha xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.75 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 25 games, going 3W 7D 15L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dukla Praha sit at 0.68 PPG from 25 outings (3W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 0.64 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Dukla Praha have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (0W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.72 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 3W 7D 15L in their last 25 games (0.64 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 8D 14L in their last 25 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Pardubice's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.83 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Pardubice
1
Draws
3
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Dukla Praha?
From 5 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Dukla Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Dukla Praha?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 33%, Dukla Praha 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 42% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 58% of games; Dukla Praha in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pardubice's recent matches and 42% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 42% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.05 xG and Dukla Praha 0.75 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.68 / defence 1.06 against Dukla Praha attack 0.62 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 40% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 24%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Dukla Praha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.64 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.