Pardubice 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Arnosta Kostala than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pardubice 0.40 PPG, Baník Ostrava 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Baník Ostrava, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Pardubice.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–5 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 43% versus Baník Ostrava 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 43% | Baník Ostrava 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.05 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.896 / defence 1.250 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.801 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.243. Data: 39 Pardubice games / 39 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Baník Ostrava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 60% | Baník Ostrava 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Pardubice 1.05 / Baník Ostrava 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.896 / def 1.250 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.801 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Baník Ostrava xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (8 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.90x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.15
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.30
1.25
Baník Ostrava xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.25 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 7W 11D 26L from 44 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 13L across 44 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 6D 9L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.45 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 7W 11D 26L in their last 44 games (0.73 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 8D 13L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.14 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Baník Ostrava 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pardubice) and 48% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 33% of games; Baník Ostrava in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Pardubice's recent matches and 48% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pardubice's recent games and 48% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 0-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.05 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.25 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Baník Ostrava 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.