Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Lokotrans Arena this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.62 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mlada Boleslav at 0.60 PPG versus Zlin's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Mlada Boleslav: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Zlin, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Zlin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 76% and Zlin 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 71% | Zlin 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.14 xG and Zlin 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.913 / defence 1.511 | Zlin attack 0.835 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.309. Data: 47 Mlada Boleslav games / 17 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 27% | Zlin 48%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Zlin 2.08. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Zlin 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 27% | Zlin 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.14 / Zlin 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.913 / def 1.511 | Zlin attack 0.835 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Zlin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Zlin xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 25% chance of winning, Zlin a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Record (7 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 4W | Draws 2 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.91) and Zlin's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
25%
3.98
27%
3.74
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.79
1.65
Zlin xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
5%
20.74
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.65 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 3W 4D 10L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 6W 5D 6L from 17 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zlin are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Zlin have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 0.62 PPG; Zlin away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 75%, Zlin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Mlada Boleslav) and 38% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 38%; Zlin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 38% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 38% of Zlin's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Zlin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 3-1 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.14 xG and Zlin 1.65 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.91 / defence 1.51 against Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 27% | Zlin 48%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Mlada Boleslav win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 71%, Zlin 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Mlada Boleslav winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.