Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 3L. Last five: L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 50% versus Teplice 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 50% | Teplice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG and Teplice 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.004 / defence 1.098 | Teplice attack 0.574 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.333. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Mlada Boleslav games / 4 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 54% | Draw 25% | Teplice 20%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 5.00. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Teplice 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 54% | Draw 25% | Teplice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.56 / Teplice 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.004 / def 1.098 | Teplice attack 0.574 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Teplice xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 54% chance of winning, Teplice a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.00) and Teplice's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.57x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.94
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.40
0.84
Teplice xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
23.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.84 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 0.75 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 50%, Teplice 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mlada Boleslav) and 50% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 25% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 50% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Teplice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 3-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG and Teplice 0.84 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Teplice attack 0.57 / defence 1.34, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 54% | Draw 25% | Teplice 20%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 50%, Teplice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.00 PPG, Teplice 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.