Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Teplice have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 5W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 62% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Teplice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.72 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.104 / defence 0.837 | Teplice attack 0.941 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.361. Data: 35 Mlada Boleslav games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 24% | Teplice 24%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 4.17. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Mlada Boleslav dominate the H2H record, yet Teplice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 24% | Teplice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.72 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.104 / def 0.837 | Teplice attack 0.941 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 53% chance of winning, Teplice a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 5W | Draws 2 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.10) and Teplice's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.94x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.19
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.79
1.07
Teplice xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
23.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 15D 13L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.30 PPG from 40 outings (13W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.30 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Teplice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 15D 13L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.26 PPG; Teplice away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Teplice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 63%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 47% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 32%; Teplice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 58% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 47% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Teplice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.