Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mlada Boleslav face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha meet at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 0.90 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sparta Praha in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Sparta Praha have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Mlada Boleslav's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 60% and Sparta Praha 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG and Sparta Praha 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.949 / defence 1.608 | Sparta Praha attack 1.079 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Data: 45 Mlada Boleslav games / 45 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 15% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 61%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Sparta Praha 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Sparta Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 15% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.05 / Sparta Praha 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.949 / def 1.608 | Sparta Praha attack 1.079 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Sparta Praha xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 15% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
Record (8 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 2 | Sparta Praha 5W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.95) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.08x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.61x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
15%
6.47
24%
4.19
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.21
2.16
Sparta Praha xG
6.47
15%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
12%
8.65
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
2%
55.92
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 2.16 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 12D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 1.88 PPG from 50 outings (28W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 8D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.64 points per game from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.78 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sparta Praha in 70%.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 28W 10D 12L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.04 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-5 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 56%, Sparta Praha 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Mlada Boleslav) and 56% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 64% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 56% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG and Sparta Praha 2.16 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 1.61 against Sparta Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 15% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 61%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.