Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mlada Boleslav 0W, Sigma Olomouc 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Sigma Olomouc 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 63% | Sigma Olomouc 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.921 / defence 1.188 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.067 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.383. Sigma Olomouc's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Mlada Boleslav games / 39 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 20% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 51%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 1.96. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Sigma Olomouc 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 20% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.05 / Sigma Olomouc 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.921 / def 1.188 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.067 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Sigma Olomouc xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 20% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.07x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
20%
4.94
28%
3.53
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.80
1.75
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
4%
28.50
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.75 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 17W 9D 17L from 43 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 17L across 43 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.26 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 9D 17L in their last 43 games (1.40 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.38 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 62%, Sigma Olomouc 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mlada Boleslav) and 43% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 29% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 43% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 10, as Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.75 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 20% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 51%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Sigma Olomouc 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.40 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.