Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Arena.
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Mlada Boleslav, 2.00 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Sigma Olomouc hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sigma Olomouc have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 53% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 58% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.226 / defence 0.646 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.060 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.646 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Mlada Boleslav games / 41 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 58% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 17%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Sigma Olomouc 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Sigma Olomouc 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 58% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.68 / Sigma Olomouc 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.226 / def 0.646 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.060 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sigma Olomouc xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 58% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (10 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 5W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.23x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.06x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.10
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.48
0.80
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
3%
31.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.80 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 15L across 45 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.60 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 9W 6D 7L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 8W 4D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.50 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 54%, Sigma Olomouc 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mlada Boleslav) and 64% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 68% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 64% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.