Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Plzen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Plzen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.103 / defence 1.442 | Plzen attack 0.887 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. Data: 29 Mlada Boleslav games / 29 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 30% | Draw 27% | Plzen 43%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 30% | Draw 27% | Plzen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.16 / Plzen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.103 / def 1.442 | Plzen attack 0.887 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Plzen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 30% chance of winning, Plzen a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.10) and Plzen's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.71
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Plzen xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.43 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 11W 5D 13L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 21W 6D 2L from 29 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 8W 4D 2L from 14 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.76 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 5D 13L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Plzen have gone 21W 6D 2L in their last 29 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.64 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plzen in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 57%, Plzen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Mlada Boleslav) and 36% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 43% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 36% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Plzen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.10 / defence 1.44 against Plzen attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 30% | Draw 27% | Plzen 43%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Plzen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.