Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 August 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mlada Boleslav register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Mlada Boleslav's 0 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Plzen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.67 xG and Plzen 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.222 / defence 1.229 | Plzen attack 1.223 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.222. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Mlada Boleslav games / 34 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 23% | Plzen 42%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Plzen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 23% | Plzen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.67 / Plzen 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.222 / def 1.229 | Plzen attack 1.223 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Plzen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Plzen xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 5 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 35% chance of winning, Plzen a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Record (8 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 3 | Plzen 5W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.22) and Plzen's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
35%
2.84
23%
4.36
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.51
1.84
Plzen xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.82
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.84 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 12W 9D 18L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 24W 7D 8L from 39 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 11W 3D 5L from 19 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Plzen have gone 24W 7D 8L in their last 39 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.26 PPG; Plzen away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 53%, Plzen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 58% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 32%; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; Plzen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 53% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 58% of Plzen's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Plzen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 0-5 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.67 xG and Plzen 1.84 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Plzen attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 23% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Plzen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.