Mlada Boleslav 3-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 58% | Hradec Králové 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.37 xG and Hradec Králové 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.332 / defence 1.494 | Hradec Králové attack 0.848 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.273. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Mlada Boleslav games / 12 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 55% | Draw 19% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | Hradec Králové 3.85. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 67% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 55% | Draw 19% | Hradec Králové 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.37 / Hradec Králové 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.332 / def 1.494 | Hradec Králové attack 0.848 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Hradec Králové xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 55% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.33x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
55%
1.83
19%
5.14
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.99
1.61
Hradec Králové xG
1.83
55%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
2%
41.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.61 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 3L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Mlada Boleslav are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.67 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 67%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Mlada Boleslav and 50% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Hradec Králové 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.37 xG and Hradec Králové 1.61 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.33 / defence 1.49 against Hradec Králové attack 0.85 / defence 1.34, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 55% | Draw 19% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 58%, Hradec Králové 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Mlada Boleslav winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.