Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 0.99 xG and FK Jablonec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | FK Jablonec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 1.214. Data: 1 Mlada Boleslav games / 1 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 31% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 40%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 31% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Mlada Boleslav 0.99 / FK Jablonec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | FK Jablonec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.880 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FK Jablonec xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 31% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.85x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
31%
3.28
29%
3.44
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.18
1.19
FK Jablonec xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.19 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FK Jablonec in 0%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Mlada Boleslav or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 0% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 0% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 0.99 xG and FK Jablonec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against FK Jablonec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 31% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 40%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 100%, FK Jablonec 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Mlada Boleslav winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.