Karviná 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Karviná welcome Zlin to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 1W 4D 5L at Městský Stadión — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zlin — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Karviná) versus 1.10 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Zlin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Karviná trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zlin trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 63% and Zlin 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 53% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.50 xG and Zlin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.925 / defence 1.510 | Zlin attack 0.716 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Karviná games / 30 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 26% | Zlin 29%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 90% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 26% | Zlin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Karviná 1.50 / Zlin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.925 / def 1.510 | Zlin attack 0.716 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Karviná (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Zlin xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Zlin kick off?
Karviná vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Karviná 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Karviná vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Zlin part of?
Karviná vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 44% chance of winning, Zlin a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Karviná and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Karviná and Zlin in?
Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.93x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.83
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.68
1.18
Zlin xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Karviná and 1.18 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 3W 8D 19L from 30 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 16L across 30 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zlin by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 1W 7D 7L from 15 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.20 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Zlin in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 3W 8D 19L in their last 30 games (0.57 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Zlin away?
Karviná's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.67 PPG; Zlin away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
2
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Zlin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Karviná at 87%, Zlin at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Karviná) and 53% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Karviná's games and 53% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Karviná's matches and 53% of Zlin's.
Do Karviná and Zlin tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round - 1, as Karviná and Zlin drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.50 xG and Zlin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.93 / defence 1.51 against Zlin attack 0.72 / defence 1.41, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 44% | Draw 26% | Zlin 29%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 53%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.