Karviná 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Karviná welcome Hradec Králové to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Karviná at 1.00 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 0.99 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Hradec Králové attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 1.214. Data: 1 Karviná games / 1 Hradec Králové games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 40%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Karviná 0.99 / Hradec Králové 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Hradec Králové attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.880 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Karviná 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Karviná vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Hradec Králové part of?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 31% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Karviná and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Karviná's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
31%
3.28
29%
3.44
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.18
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Karviná and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Karviná and 1.19 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 1.00 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Karviná's scoring rate against Hradec Králové's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hradec Králové in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Karviná have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Karviná's games and 100% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Karviná's recent games and 0% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 2, as Karviná and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 0.99 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Hradec Králové attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 40%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 100%, Hradec Králové 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.00 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.