Karviná 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and České Budějovice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský Stadión this season.
České Budějovice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Karviná winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 56% and České Budějovice 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 62% | České Budějovice 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.35 xG and České Budějovice 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.656 / defence 1.219 | České Budějovice attack 0.916 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Karviná's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Karviná games / 60 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 34% | Draw 28% | České Budějovice 38%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | České Budějovice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 50% | České Budějovice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 34% | Draw 28% | České Budějovice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Karviná 1.35 / České Budějovice 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.656 / def 1.219 | České Budějovice attack 0.916 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.44
České Budějovice xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs České Budějovice kick off?
Karviná vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Karviná 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Karviná vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs České Budějovice part of?
Karviná vs České Budějovice is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 34% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Karviná and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Record (4 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 2W.
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.92x) against Karviná's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.61
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.79
1.44
České Budějovice xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Karviná and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Karviná and 1.44 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 7W 8D 19L from 34 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 19L across 34 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Karviná against 0.85 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 4W 4D 8L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 5D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.21 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 7W 8D 19L in their last 34 games (0.85 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 7W 8D 19L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or České Budějovice away?
Karviná's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Karviná
1
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and České Budějovice?
From 7 meetings on record, Karviná have won 4, České Budějovice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and České Budějovice?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 56%, České Budějovice 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Karviná and 62% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 38% of games; České Budějovice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Karviná's games and 69% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Karviná's matches and 62% of České Budějovice's.
Do Karviná and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.35 xG and České Budějovice 1.44 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.66 / defence 1.22 against České Budějovice attack 0.92 / defence 1.34, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 34% | Draw 28% | České Budějovice 38%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 62%, České Budějovice 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.85 PPG, České Budějovice 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.