Hradec Králové 0-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Hradec Králové welcome Sparta Praha to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 0, Sparta Praha 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 55% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 53% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Sparta Praha 2.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.703 / defence 1.224 | Sparta Praha attack 1.526 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.345. Hradec Králové's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — the away xG of 2.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Hradec Králové games / 53 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 11% | Draw 19% | Sparta Praha 70%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | Sparta Praha 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Sparta Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 11% | Draw 19% | Sparta Praha 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 0.95 / Sparta Praha 2.51 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.703 / def 1.224 | Sparta Praha attack 1.526 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
2.51
Sparta Praha xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Hradec Králové 0 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 11% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 70% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 2.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
11%
9.07
19%
5.32
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.46
2.51
Sparta Praha xG
9.07
11%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
8%
12.33
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
111.88
27%
3.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 2.51 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.14 PPG from 58 outings (37W 13D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.86 points per game from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.17 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 37W 13D 8L in their last 58 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.46 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Sparta Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 64% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 64% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Sparta Praha 2.51 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.70 / defence 1.22 against Sparta Praha attack 1.53 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 11% | Draw 19% | Sparta Praha 70%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 53%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.