Hradec Králové 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 37%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Slovan Liberec travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.25 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.922 / defence 1.112 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.350. Data: 2 Hradec Králové games / 2 Slovan Liberec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 36% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 37%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Slovan Liberec 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 36% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Hradec Králové 1.25 / Slovan Liberec 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.922 / def 1.112 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Slovan Liberec xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 36% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.72
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.52
1.28
Slovan Liberec xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.28 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Slovan Liberec in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 0% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec finished level at 1-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.25 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.28 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 36% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 37%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 0%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovan Liberec scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.