Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Group - 3 sees Slovan Liberec travel to Malsovicka arena to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Malsovicka arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 2, Slovan Liberec 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 42% versus Slovan Liberec 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 44% | Slovan Liberec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.42 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.021 / defence 0.792 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.040 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.200. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Hradec Králové games / 60 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Slovan Liberec 4.00. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 20% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 3 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Hradec Králové 1.42 / Slovan Liberec 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.021 / def 0.792 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.040 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Slovan Liberec xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec is a Championship Group - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 46% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 3 | Slovan Liberec 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.41
0.99
Slovan Liberec xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.99 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 27W 15D 22L from 64 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 21L across 64 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.50 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 15W 9D 7L from 31 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 9W 9D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.42 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 27W 15D 22L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 24W 19D 21L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.74 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 39%, Slovan Liberec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Hradec Králové) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Malsovicka arena, Championship Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.42 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.02 / defence 0.79 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.50 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.