Hradec Králové 2-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.10 (Mlada Boleslav). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Mlada Boleslav in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Mlada Boleslav 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.709 / defence 1.229 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.794 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Hradec Králové's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Hradec Králové games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 70% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Hradec Králové 1.34 / Mlada Boleslav 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.709 / def 1.229 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.794 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 2 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 38% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (2 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.38
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.56
1.22
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.22 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 19D 25L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 23W 17D 25L from 65 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.26 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 5D 15L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.42 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 55%, Mlada Boleslav 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hradec Králové) and 58% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Hradec Králové's games and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Hradec Králové's matches and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.71 / defence 1.23 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 52%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.26 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.