Hradec Králové 2-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host FK Jablonec at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 Czech Liga matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 44% versus FK Jablonec 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hradec Králové 22% | FK Jablonec 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.860 / defence 0.878 | FK Jablonec attack 0.555 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.323. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Hradec Králové games / 9 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 59% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 15%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | FK Jablonec 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 59% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Hradec Králové 1.54 / FK Jablonec 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.860 / def 0.878 | FK Jablonec attack 0.555 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.64
FK Jablonec xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec part of?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 59% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.86x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.93
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.19
0.64
FK Jablonec xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
3%
30.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.64 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.33 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.67 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or FK Jablonec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
4
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, FK Jablonec 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Hradec Králové and 50% for FK Jablonec.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 25% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 10, as Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.64 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against FK Jablonec attack 0.56 / defence 1.31, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 59% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 15%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 22%, FK Jablonec 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.