Hradec Králové 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Malsovicka arena plays host to Hradec Králové versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Malsovicka arena, Hradec Králové have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malsovicka arena than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Baník Ostrava, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
It is worth noting that Baník Ostrava have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 39% versus Baník Ostrava 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.917 / defence 0.953 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.871 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.127. Data: 55 Hradec Králové games / 55 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 23%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Baník Ostrava 4.35. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Baník Ostrava 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hradec Králové 1.45 / Baník Ostrava 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.917 / def 0.953 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.871 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 47% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.92) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.87x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.36
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.38
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
5%
18.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.94 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hradec Králové come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 14D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.58 PPG from 59 outings (27W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.58 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hradec Králové's home form reads 13W 9D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.37 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 20L in their last 59 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.66 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 38%, Baník Ostrava 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Hradec Králové) and 38% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 41% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 38% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 23%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.