FK Jablonec 2-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 0 for Zlin and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Zlin trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 50% versus Zlin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.70 xG and Zlin 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.015 / defence 1.041 | Zlin attack 0.917 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.281. Data: 47 FK Jablonec games / 47 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 29% | Zlin 25%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Zlin 4.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 29% | Zlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FK Jablonec 1.70 / Zlin 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.015 / def 1.041 | Zlin attack 0.917 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Zlin xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
FK Jablonec 2 - 2 Zlin.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 46% chance of winning, Zlin a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 3 | Zlin 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.39
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.92
1.22
Zlin xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
22.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.22 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 52 games, going 10W 20D 22L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.94 PPG from 52 outings (11W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 0.96 PPG, Zlin on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 6W 10D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.64 points per game from 25 outings (2W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.13 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 20D 22L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 16D 25L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.12 PPG; Zlin away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 52%, Zlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 28% of games; Zlin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Zlin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Zlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 18, as FK Jablonec and Zlin drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.70 xG and Zlin 1.22 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Zlin attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 29% | Zlin 25%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 42%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.96 PPG, Zlin 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.