FK Jablonec 3-1 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Zbrojovka Brno travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 4W 2D 2L from 8 Czech Liga matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 1.75. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno away from home this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 1.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zbrojovka Brno — 0.65 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.75 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 75% and Zbrojovka Brno 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FK Jablonec 62% | Zbrojovka Brno 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.016 / defence 0.999 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.134 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.369. Data: 39 FK Jablonec games / 8 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 34% | Draw 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 36%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Zbrojovka Brno 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Zbrojovka Brno 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 34% | Draw 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG FK Jablonec 1.49 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.016 / def 0.999 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.134 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Zbrojovka Brno xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
FK Jablonec 3 - 1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 34% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.02) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.34
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.04
1.55
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.03
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.55 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zbrojovka Brno by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record stands at 3W 0D 0L across 3 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.75 PPG overall record — Zbrojovka Brno travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.88 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 3.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zbrojovka Brno specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
0
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FK Jablonec at 67%, Zbrojovka Brno at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FK Jablonec) and 67% (Zbrojovka Brno).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zbrojovka Brno.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Zbrojovka Brno 3-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.55 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 34% | Draw 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 36%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 62%, Zbrojovka Brno 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with FK Jablonec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.