FK Jablonec vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Teplice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.

Teplice (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Teplice away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across 10 previous meetings, FK Jablonec are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Teplice — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Teplice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Teplice 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.64 xG and Teplice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.039 / defence 0.933 | Teplice attack 0.976 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.316. Data: 31 FK Jablonec games / 31 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 24% | Teplice 28%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 3.57. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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