FK Jablonec 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FK Jablonec have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 55% versus Slovan Liberec 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 47% | Slovan Liberec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.70 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.033 / defence 0.963 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.781 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.254. Data: 56 FK Jablonec games / 56 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 20%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Slovan Liberec 5.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Slovan Liberec 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.70 / Slovan Liberec 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.033 / def 0.963 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.781 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Slovan Liberec xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 54% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.03x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.78x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.81
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.65
0.94
Slovan Liberec xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
27.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.94 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 21D 23L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.17 PPG from 58 outings (18W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.17 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 8W 12D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (7W 7D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.05 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 14W 21D 23L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 18W 14D 26L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovan Liberec away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.24 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 55%, Slovan Liberec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.70 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.94 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 20%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Slovan Liberec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.09 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.