FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Střelnice this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.00 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 46% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 41% | Hradec Králové 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 0.95 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.731 / defence 1.075 | Hradec Králové attack 0.676 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.199. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 FK Jablonec games / 23 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG FK Jablonec 0.95 / Hradec Králové 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.731 / def 1.075 | Hradec Králové attack 0.676 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 36% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.07
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
1.82
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.87 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 9D 9L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 0.95 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.18 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.30 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 40%, Hradec Králové 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for FK Jablonec and 50% for Hradec Králové.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 30% of games; Hradec Králové in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 40% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 24, as FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 0.95 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.73 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 41%, Hradec Králové 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.95 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.