FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Strelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Strelnice this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.10 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
FK Jablonec hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Hradec Králové, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Hradec Králové 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.29 xG and Hradec Králové 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / defence 1.256 | Hradec Králové attack 0.797 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 43 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 34% | Draw 31% | Hradec Králové 34%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Hradec Králové 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 34% | Draw 31% | Hradec Králové 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG FK Jablonec 1.29 / Hradec Králové 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / def 1.256 | Hradec Králové attack 0.797 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hradec Králové xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 34% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 5W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.19
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.57
1.28
Hradec Králové xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.28 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 9D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.48 PPG from 48 outings (20W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.56 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 11W 7D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.29 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 22W 9D 17L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 11D 17L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 46% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.