FK Jablonec 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 8 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in FK Jablonec's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.24 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.915 / defence 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.820 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.322. Data: 2 FK Jablonec games / 2 Bohemians 1905 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG FK Jablonec 1.24 / Bohemians 1905 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.915 / def 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.820 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bohemians 1905 xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.82x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.52
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.26
1.03
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.03 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 100%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have FK Jablonec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 100% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.24 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.03 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 50%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.