FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FK Jablonec: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Baník Ostrava, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FK Jablonec and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FK Jablonec 39% | Baník Ostrava 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.76 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.984 / defence 0.941 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.795 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.307. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 FK Jablonec games / 36 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 20%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FK Jablonec dominate the H2H record, yet Baník Ostrava are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.76 / Baník Ostrava 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.984 / def 0.941 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.795 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Baník Ostrava xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 3 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 55% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Record (9 meetings): FK Jablonec 6W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.98) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.11
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.73
0.98
Baník Ostrava xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
28.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.98 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 19W 8D 14L from 41 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 22L across 41 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baník Ostrava heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 7D 22L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.80 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.80 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 60%, Baník Ostrava 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FK Jablonec) and 45% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 45% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 3-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.76 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 20%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 39%, Baník Ostrava 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.