FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FK Jablonec have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FK Jablonec: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Baník Ostrava, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 37% versus Baník Ostrava 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.30 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.862 / defence 0.871 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.811 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.176. Data: 57 FK Jablonec games / 57 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Baník Ostrava 4.55. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Baník Ostrava 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG FK Jablonec 1.30 / Baník Ostrava 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.862 / def 0.871 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.811 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Baník Ostrava xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 4 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 46% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Record (9 meetings): FK Jablonec 5W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.86) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.13
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.13
0.83
Baník Ostrava xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.83 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 33W 12D 17L from 62 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 23L across 62 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.79 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 17W 8D 5L from 30 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 33W 12D 17L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 23L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.97 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.27 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 40%, Baník Ostrava 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FK Jablonec) and 37% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 37% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 4-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.30 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 32% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.79 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.