FK Jablonec 2-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.20 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 0 for Baník Ostrava and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 62% versus Baník Ostrava 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Baník Ostrava 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / defence 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.035 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.217. Data: 56 FK Jablonec games / 56 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 37%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Baník Ostrava 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG FK Jablonec 1.36 / Baník Ostrava 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / def 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.035 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 2 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 36% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Record (4 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.04) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.67
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.74
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.38 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 16W 20D 25L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 25L across 61 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.11 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 12D 8L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.49 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.40 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Baník Ostrava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out FK Jablonec 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat FK Jablonec 2-3 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 37%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Baník Ostrava 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.11 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.